is a poor index
of the accuracy of a judgment.”
This relates to the idea that we too often think that our decisions, based on our expertise, should rule the day, without bothering for any objective analysis. Too often pundits, be they of the performance measurement professional, political, sports, or some other variety, tend to speak as if their opinions, which is all that they really are, are somehow factual. I am no doubt guilty of this myself, thinking that my judgment is sufficient to know what is true and factual. And while I'd like to think that more often than not I am correct, there are also times when I err.
When hearing someone pontificate about a subject it is wise to discern whether or not they are being presented with opinion or fact, derived from objective analysis. This holds true in all walks of life, including performance and risk measurement.